How walkable is your community and neighborhood?

WalkScore.com  is a fun way to measure the walkability of any address, town, city or ZIP code.  Each address's Walk Score is based on walking distances to nearby amenities. It also considers road connectivity, intersection density and average block length. Areas with scores of 70 or more are considered very walkable; score between 50 and 69 are considered somewhat walkable; and those with scores of 50 or less are considered car-dependent.

The 65 largest cities in North Carolina have an average Walk Score of 38. The most walkable cities in North Carolina are Boone, with an average score of 75, and Chapel Hill, with an average score of 53. Clemmons with an average score of 23 and Lewisville with a score of 20 were ranked as the second and third least walkable cities in North Carolina. Kernersville had an average score of 37 and Winston-Salem had an average score of 35. Based on Walk Score, 23% of Winston-Salem residents live in neighborhoods classified as at least somewhat walkable, while 77% live in car-dependent neighborhoods. Winston-Salem's most walkable ZIP codes are 27103 and 27109. Winston-Salem's least walkable ZIP codes are 27106 and 27104.

However, local road planning has seen improvements. A “connectivity index” is now used for rating new subdivision developments to ensure shorter travel distances and more route options. A Collector Street Plan was developed to ensure the logical overall connections between neighborhoods and communities as development comes in for approval. To help slow traffic down in neighborhoods, the City of Winston-Salem has put a traffic calming program in place. Examples of traffic calming projects include Lockland Avenue and London Lane.

There is an increased awareness of the importance of other transportation choices such as walking and biking, as well as the relationship of transportation alternatives to a healthy community. New street standards were adopted in Winston-Salem requiring sidewalks in new developments, and all sidewalks in Winston-Salem were mapped using a Global Positioning System. The City began striping bike lanes in 2007 and now has 7.2 miles of lanes marked.  A large section of the Muddy Creek Greenway was constructed. Major long range plans were completed for greenways, pedestrian facilities and bicycle facilities. Development design has been another area of success. Several new pedestrian-oriented commercial developments have been approved and built in Forsyth County.

Implications of Demographic Changes for Future Planning

 

Forsyth County Selected Demographics	Hispanic	African-American	White	Asian	Overall
1990 Percent of Forsyth County Population	0.8%	24.8%	73.6%	0.6%
2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population	11.9%	25.5%	58.7%	1.8%
1990-2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population Growth	46.8%	27.9%	12.1%	5.6%
2009 Median Age	24.1	33.4	42.1	33.6	37.1
2000-2009 Pre-Seniors Growth (55-64 years old)	133.3%	53.6%	34.8%	159%	41.1%
2009 Median Household Income	$32,240	$33,502	$55,492	$64,819	$47,438
2009 Percent Owner-Occupied Housing	35%	47.5%	77.4%	54.3%	66.9%
2009 Percent with High School Degree	52.4%	85.2%	90.2%	92.1%	86.3%
2009 Percent with Bachelor's Degree	12.5%	21.7%	35.2%	61.2%	30.8%
2009 Percent Living Below Poverty Level	36.2%	24.3%	7.4%	6.4%	14.6%

The Brookings Institute in State of Metropolitan America (2010) describes several major national demographic trends from the past decade that can be expected to continue into the next couple of decades including: Population Diversification, Aging Population and Income Polarization.

How does this impact planning? Let's start here:

• Increasing diversity introduces needs for more diverse residential options with better accessibility to jobs
• Aging population will demand more walkable, mixed use environments
• Dispersed, low-density residential pattern makes it difficult and costly to provide transportation options for older populations, single-parent households and households sensitive to gas prices
• Growth in knowledge-based economy creates demands for more vibrant urban living options for “Gen-X” workers
• We're starting to see new trends in net increase in college-educated workers, and more urban living 

Future Employment Trends

Employment in the Piedmont Triad is projected to increase from 915,000 in 2010 to 1.1 million people in 2030. The majority of this employment growth will continue to be in Forsyth and Guilford Counties according to projections. Overall, job numbers in Forsyth County are projected to increase from 229,000 to 295,000 between 2010 and 2030, with service-sector jobs increasing and manufacturing jobs decreasing.

Locally, the transition from a goods-producing employment base to a knowledge-intensive, service-oriented economy continues to be challenging. Many of the traditional jobs that paid a family-sustaining wage in the Triad including textiles, cigarette and furniture manufacturing no longer exist or have left the Piedmont Triad region.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for the year 2018, employment in the United States is expected to increase in the service or knowledge-based sectors, especially in professional and business services, health care, entertainment, recreation and social assistance while jobs in the industrial and goods-producing sector are projected to remain static.

Piedmont Triad Regional Growth

The Piedmont Crescent of North Carolina, which includes the Triangle, Triad and Charlotte metro regions, is one of the fastest growing areas in the country. Over 60% of the state's population resides in this 33-county region. Between 2000 and 2010, our own Piedmont Triad Region grew from 1.4 million to 1.6 million people. During the same time period, the urbanized counties of Forsyth and Guilford grew from 730,000 to 845,000 people. As a result, more than half of all people living in the 10-county Triad area now live in Forsyth and Guilford Counties. By 2030, the population of the Piedmont Triad is projected to exceed two million people, and much of the new growth is expected to go to Forsyth and Guilford Counties.

62,000 Acres Remaining



*Available land is vacant or underdeveloped land for the purposes of this study - underdeveloped land is defined as tracts larger than five acres in size with improvement values less than $150,000 for commercial/industrial uses or less than $300,000 for residential uses.

 

A geographic analysis of land availability and current tax records shows that of Forsyth County’s 201,000 acres of Serviceable Land Area: 48% are considered developed; 10% are designated as public rights-of-way; 4% are used for parks, recreation or schools; and 7% are located within undevelopable floodplains. The total amount of land for these classifications is approximately 138,600 acres, which is 69% of the total Serviceable Land Area. This leaves approximately 62,000 acres (31%) as “available,” for future development.

Land Demand and Build-Out

The Muddy Creek Basin and the Expansion of Forsyth County Development
and Municipal Boundaries from 1980-2010

Forsyth County is relatively small in its geographic area compared to other urbanized counties in North Carolina. In addition to our small size, our topography makes it more difficult and much more expensive to extend sewer to outlying rural areas beyond the Muddy Creek basin. These rural areas make up approximately one third of the county’s total land area, reducing the amount of Serviceable Land Area (land served by gravity-fed sewer in the Muddy Creek basin) in the county.

Population density getting lower and lower

Our growth trend for the past several decades in Forsyth County has been for fairly low-density development. Residential density trends show a substantial drop in overall residential density for Winston-Salem since 1920 when more “traditional” growth patterns were the norm. This trend of lower residential densities has shown no signs of slowing in the past several decades.