Free Movie at Aperture Cinema, Friday, May 6 @11:30 AM

Join us for a free presentation of a very interesting and entertaining one-hour documentary about urban planning issues: "Phoenix: The Urban Desert." There are a number of parallels between this city and our own region.

This is the first in a series of documentaries we'll be showing at Aperture Cinema in downtown Winston-Salem.

Friday, May 13th, 11:30 AM: "Cleveland: Confronting Decline in an American City"

Friday, May 20th, 11:30 AM: "Portland: Quest for the Livable City"

311 West Fourth Street
Winston-Salem, NC 27101

The Big Question: Where will 120,000 People Go?

Forsyth County is expected to see a net increase of 120,000 new residents and 66,000 new jobs move to our communities. Where will these new residents live and work and how will we preserve the good qualities of our county while accommodating necessary new development? How will we preserve prime acreage for employment centers that are currently undeveloped but are zoned for single-family development? What is the most economical way for our community to develop and receive services in a way that helps keep taxes from increasing? To answer these questions, it is necessary to understand our options for future growth and make a deliberate choice about how our community moves forward. The Growth Management Plan can be an important tool in implementing any chosen growth strategy.

Due to the prominence of low-density residential development patterns in recent decades, Forsyth County has only 62,000 acres of undeveloped land left which is capable of supporting urban and suburban growth. This area of land will be referred to in the Legacy Update as the “Serviceable Land Area.” While 62,000 acres may sound like a lot of land, incorporated Winston-Salem and the surrounding small municipalities could be built-out in 25 years if current development patterns continue. How quickly the remaining 62,000 acres of Serviceable Land Area are developed depends on the availability of the land and the timing and density of  the development. The lower the density of any new development, the more quickly our remaining land will be used up.

Since 1950, Winston-Salem’s density has dropped dramatically (63%, from 7.3 persons per acre to 2.7 persons per acre) due to suburbanization and smaller household size (the number of persons living in each dwelling unit). The other municipalities in Forsyth County have even lower overall densities ranging from 0.6 persons per acre in Tobaccoville to 2.4 persons per acre in Clemmons.

Implications of Demographic Changes for Future Planning

 

Forsyth County Selected Demographics	Hispanic	African-American	White	Asian	Overall
1990 Percent of Forsyth County Population	0.8%	24.8%	73.6%	0.6%
2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population	11.9%	25.5%	58.7%	1.8%
1990-2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population Growth	46.8%	27.9%	12.1%	5.6%
2009 Median Age	24.1	33.4	42.1	33.6	37.1
2000-2009 Pre-Seniors Growth (55-64 years old)	133.3%	53.6%	34.8%	159%	41.1%
2009 Median Household Income	$32,240	$33,502	$55,492	$64,819	$47,438
2009 Percent Owner-Occupied Housing	35%	47.5%	77.4%	54.3%	66.9%
2009 Percent with High School Degree	52.4%	85.2%	90.2%	92.1%	86.3%
2009 Percent with Bachelor's Degree	12.5%	21.7%	35.2%	61.2%	30.8%
2009 Percent Living Below Poverty Level	36.2%	24.3%	7.4%	6.4%	14.6%

The Brookings Institute in State of Metropolitan America (2010) describes several major national demographic trends from the past decade that can be expected to continue into the next couple of decades including: Population Diversification, Aging Population and Income Polarization.

How does this impact planning? Let's start here:

• Increasing diversity introduces needs for more diverse residential options with better accessibility to jobs
• Aging population will demand more walkable, mixed use environments
• Dispersed, low-density residential pattern makes it difficult and costly to provide transportation options for older populations, single-parent households and households sensitive to gas prices
• Growth in knowledge-based economy creates demands for more vibrant urban living options for “Gen-X” workers
• We're starting to see new trends in net increase in college-educated workers, and more urban living 

Piedmont Triad Regional Growth

The Piedmont Crescent of North Carolina, which includes the Triangle, Triad and Charlotte metro regions, is one of the fastest growing areas in the country. Over 60% of the state's population resides in this 33-county region. Between 2000 and 2010, our own Piedmont Triad Region grew from 1.4 million to 1.6 million people. During the same time period, the urbanized counties of Forsyth and Guilford grew from 730,000 to 845,000 people. As a result, more than half of all people living in the 10-county Triad area now live in Forsyth and Guilford Counties. By 2030, the population of the Piedmont Triad is projected to exceed two million people, and much of the new growth is expected to go to Forsyth and Guilford Counties.