Implications of Demographic Changes for Future Planning

 

Forsyth County Selected Demographics	Hispanic	African-American	White	Asian	Overall
1990 Percent of Forsyth County Population	0.8%	24.8%	73.6%	0.6%
2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population	11.9%	25.5%	58.7%	1.8%
1990-2010 Percent of Forsyth County Population Growth	46.8%	27.9%	12.1%	5.6%
2009 Median Age	24.1	33.4	42.1	33.6	37.1
2000-2009 Pre-Seniors Growth (55-64 years old)	133.3%	53.6%	34.8%	159%	41.1%
2009 Median Household Income	$32,240	$33,502	$55,492	$64,819	$47,438
2009 Percent Owner-Occupied Housing	35%	47.5%	77.4%	54.3%	66.9%
2009 Percent with High School Degree	52.4%	85.2%	90.2%	92.1%	86.3%
2009 Percent with Bachelor's Degree	12.5%	21.7%	35.2%	61.2%	30.8%
2009 Percent Living Below Poverty Level	36.2%	24.3%	7.4%	6.4%	14.6%

The Brookings Institute in State of Metropolitan America (2010) describes several major national demographic trends from the past decade that can be expected to continue into the next couple of decades including: Population Diversification, Aging Population and Income Polarization.

How does this impact planning? Let's start here:

• Increasing diversity introduces needs for more diverse residential options with better accessibility to jobs
• Aging population will demand more walkable, mixed use environments
• Dispersed, low-density residential pattern makes it difficult and costly to provide transportation options for older populations, single-parent households and households sensitive to gas prices
• Growth in knowledge-based economy creates demands for more vibrant urban living options for “Gen-X” workers
• We're starting to see new trends in net increase in college-educated workers, and more urban living 

Education and three challenges for our community

The trend toward a more educated work force points out three challenges for our community:

1. We must provide more educational opportunities for our local work force,
2. We must encourage the continued transition of the economy in our area to embrace the growth of knowledge-based jobs, and
3. We must have a quality of life that keeps highly educated, skilled workers in Forsyth County.

A high quality of life not only attracts and retains residents, it also is a factor used by corporations  when locating in a community. Quality of life is defined by educational opportunities, fiscal soundness, a healthful and attractive environment, modern urban services and amenities, and recreational and cultural opportunities.

Encouraging key economic drivers such as restorative medicine and other biomedical and high technology initiatives will put our community and region in a good position to compete in the world economy.

Future Employment Trends

Employment in the Piedmont Triad is projected to increase from 915,000 in 2010 to 1.1 million people in 2030. The majority of this employment growth will continue to be in Forsyth and Guilford Counties according to projections. Overall, job numbers in Forsyth County are projected to increase from 229,000 to 295,000 between 2010 and 2030, with service-sector jobs increasing and manufacturing jobs decreasing.

Locally, the transition from a goods-producing employment base to a knowledge-intensive, service-oriented economy continues to be challenging. Many of the traditional jobs that paid a family-sustaining wage in the Triad including textiles, cigarette and furniture manufacturing no longer exist or have left the Piedmont Triad region.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for the year 2018, employment in the United States is expected to increase in the service or knowledge-based sectors, especially in professional and business services, health care, entertainment, recreation and social assistance while jobs in the industrial and goods-producing sector are projected to remain static.